Growth of German industrial production 1991 - 2023

For new tops German industrial production needs 7 - 10 years since the 90s

The data from the German Federal Statistical Office go back to 1991, resulting in a span of 32 years up to 2022. This report shows the trend in Germanany's industrial production for this period.

February 12th, 2024 - A glance at the chart shows it:

• To reach again a higher high, industrial production needs 7 to 10 years since the 1990s.

Three major phases of growth in Germany's industrial production can be seen from 1991 to 2023. The fourth phase from the end of 2018 to the end of 2023 is not a growth phase.

In March 1992, German industrial production reached a high of 78.5 index points. This was followed by a downward and upward trend in production, a somewhat higher high with subsequent stagnation until finally a new high of 84.7 index points was reached in July 2001. In these almost ten years, industrial production grew by 0.8% per year.

We do not look at monthly production index data. Rather, we condense them into a moving annual average - the dashed line in the chart. Moving means: a new monthly value of the production index is included and the last index value, the twelfth, is disregarded. Thus, for each of its values, the dashed line represents the average of the last twelve values of the production index.

The new and higher high of production in 2001 was followed by 7 years of growth to a higher high of 99.8 index points in September 2008. The annual growth rate in these seven years was 2.3% per year.

This high in production was followed by the global economic crisis of 2008/09. After the crisis low was overcome, the course of industrial production from the first growth phase was repeated. A lower high was followed by a drop in production, then a rise again, followed by a phase of stagnation from which slight growth again emerged.

It was not until 10 years later in October 2018 that the pre-crisis level of 2008 was exceeded at 105.9 index points.

Since then, Germany's industrial production has been unable to approach this October 2018 high again. Instead, German industrial production has been shrinking by 1.9% annually for the past five years.

What can be seen from more than 30 years of production growth?
 

• A higher high in production has always been followed by a decline in production.
  
  
• The period from a production high to a higher high has been 10 years twice and 7 years once.
  
  
• Annual production growth in the two 10-year periods is very low, at 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.