Fluctuations of car production in Germany 2000 - 2023

Car production in Germany more volatile after 2008/09 with weaker growth

This report examines the range of fluctuation with which auto production in Germany oscillates around the basic directions of growth, stagnation and decline. Another report examines the current development status of the auto industry since 2008. Finally, a special report identifies the five long-term trends in the auto industry from 2008 to 2023.

February 12th, 2024 - The chart shows us the orginal production data from month to month (red line). The blue dashed line marks the 12-month moving averages as a trend. Each next month is taken into account and the last month is disregarded. Finally, the Bollinger Bands encompass the fluctuation range of over 95% of the monthly production values.

The fluctuation range is measured as the distance between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands and is shown at the bottom of the chart. For the period from 2000 to 2004, it is 28.2 index points. The Bollinger Bands are used as a measure of volatility and are explained in more detail in an article.  

The main result of this analysis and its visualization in the chart is:

• The volatility of monthly car production has increased since the last world economic crisis of 2008/09 and this at weaker growth of production.  

Let's follow both points of view more closely.

Auto production growth weaker after 2008/09, production fluctuations stronger

From the beginning of 2000 to March 2004, auto production is growing at a trend rate of 3.6% per year. The fluctuation range for this period is 28.2 index points.  

From April 2005 to April 2008, auto production is growing at a trend rate of 4.8% per year. The fluctuation range during this growth is 36.9 index points.  

During the global economic crisis until the pre-crisis level is reached, the fluctuation range increases to 48.9 index points.  

After the global economic crisis and reaching the pre-crisis level, auto production grows in trend to 106.9 index points with a growth rate of 1.9% per year until July 2018. This six-year growth rate is almost half that of the period from 2000 to 2004 and a factor of 2.5 lower than that of the growth period from 2004 to 2008, but the fluctuation range of this lower growth is 44.8 index points, 58% and 21% higher than that of the two aforementioned growth periods.  

The crash in auto production until the crisis low is overcome is much more severe from mid-2018 to mid-2021 at -9.7% per year than in the years of the global economic crisis from 2008 to 2012 at +1.6% per year. And the fluctuation range of this period is 23% higher than that of the global economic crisis and its recovery!  

Finally, car production in 2021/23 grows at 8.2% per year with a fluctuation range of 45.1 index points, 60% and 22% higher than in the first two growth periods mentioned.

On the causes of this development

The question remains as to the reasons why the fluctuation in auto production has increased significantly with weaker growth since the last global economic crisis in 2008/09.

Keywords for the causes are:

The structural changes in the course of industrial production in industrialized countries since 2000, elaborated in a related report.

The tendency of stagnation in the world economy, affecting mainly the industrial production of industrialized countries, but also slowdowns in BRIC and MIST countries.

The aggressive nature of U.S. policy since Trump, aimed at maintaining the number one position of the U.S. in the world, especially against China. Supply chain disruptions, e.g., in microchips, are accepted if it only hurts China. The internationalization of production is currently in a phase of regrouping along the political rivalry of the USA against China.